Editor James A. Molnar makes his final predictions for the 97th Academy Awards.
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With the most nominations of the year, at 13, just how many awards will “Emilia Pérez” take home? It set the record for most nominations for a non-English language film. Additionally, "Emilia Pérez" and "I’m Still Here" are the 10th and 11th non-English language films to be nominated for both International Feature Film and Best Picture in the same year.
I’m predicting that the musical will not be taking home many awards, just two: Zoe Saldaña for Supporting Actress and "El Mal" for Original Song.
Last year "Oppenheimer" joined an exclusive club. Winner of seven awards, it became one of only four Best Picture winners since 2009 taking home five or more statuettes (thank to Variety for the that stat). No film will get that high of a tally this year, I'm prediction. "Anora" and "The Brutalist" will each get three wins. And "Anora" will be crowned winner of the night with Best Picture.
For Best Picture, it’s important to remember that the Preferential Ballot (Ranked Choice Voting) is in play. Watch this animated video from The Academy to learn more about this voting system for the top category.
The Supporting Acting categories seem to be a lock (Kieran Culkin and Zoe Saldaña), with two potential alternatives in the Lead Acting races: Adrien Brody in "The Brutalist" could be spoiled by Timothée Chalamet in "A Complete Unknown" and Demi Moore in "The Substance" could be spoiled by Mikey Madison in "Anora."
If you’re looking for sure things (or as close as we can get on Oscar Night):
- Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Kieran Culkin in "A Real Pain"
- Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Zoe Saldaña in "Emilia Pérez"
- Best Cinematography: "The Brutalist" – Lol Crawley
- Best Costume Design: "Wicked"
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling: "The Substance"
- Best Music (Original Score): "The Brutalist" – Daniel Blumberg
- Best Visual Effects: "Dune: Part Two"
For some of the shorts, let the guessing be ever on your side!
We’ll all find out what happens Sunday night. In the meantime, we’re here to help you win your Oscar pool or ballot contest.
Here are my final predictions (and the possible spoilers):
— FINAL: 18 out of 23 (78%) —
Past Predictions Record:
96th in 2024: 18 out of 23 (78%)
95th in 2023: 18 out of 23 (78%)
94th in 2022: 19 out of 23 (83%)
93rd in 2021: 18 out of 23 (78%)
92nd in 2020: 21 out of 24 (88%)
91st in 2019: 18 out of 24 (75%)
90th in 2018: 18 out of 24 (75%)
89th in 2017: 14 out of 24 (58%)
88th in 2016: 19 out of 24 (79%)
87th in 2015: 19 out of 24 (79%)
86th in 2014: 21 out of 24 (88%)
85th in 2013: 16 out of 24 (67%)
90th in 2018: 18 out of 24 (75%)
89th in 2017: 14 out of 24 (58%)
88th in 2016: 19 out of 24 (79%)
87th in 2015: 19 out of 24 (79%)
86th in 2014: 21 out of 24 (88%)
85th in 2013: 16 out of 24 (67%)
Final Tally Predictions
Best Picture Release Dates:
"Emilia Pérez" (Netflix): 2 out of 13 √ Correct
"The Brutalist" (A24): 3 out of 10 √ Correct
"Wicked" (Universal): 2 out of 10 √ Correct
"A Complete Unknown" (Searchlight): 0 out of 8 √ Correct
"Conclave" (Focus Features): 2 out of 8 1 out of 8
"Anora" (Neon): 3 out of 6 5 out of 6
"Dune: Part Two" (Warner Bros.): 2 out of 5 √ Correct
"The Substance" (MUBI): 2 out of 5 1 out of 5
"Nosferatu" (Focus Features): 0 out of 4 √ Correct
"I'm Still Here" (Sony Pictures Classics): 1 out of 3 √ Correct
"Sing Sing" (A24): 0 out of 3 √ Correct
"The Wild Robot" (Universal): 0 out of 3 √ Correct
"The Apprentice" (Briarcliff Entertainment/Rich Spirit): 0 out of 2 √ Correct
"Flow" (Sideshow/Janus Films): 1 out of 2 √ Correct
"Nickel Boys" (Orion Pictures/Amazon MGM Studios): 0 out of 2 √ Correct
"A Real Pain" (Searchlight): 1 out of 2 √ Correct
Best Picture Release Dates:
"Dune: Part Two" - February 29
"The Substance" - September 18
"Anora" - October 17
"Conclave" - October 24
"Emilia Pérez" - November 1
"I’m Still Here" - November 20
"Wicked" - November 21
"Nickel Boys" - December 13
"The Brutalist" - December 20
"A Complete Unknown" - December 24
Best Picture √ Correct
**PREDICTION** "Anora" (Neon)
A Cre Films Production
Alex Coco, Samantha Quan and Sean Baker, Producers
"The Brutalist" (A24)
An A24/Brookstreet Pictures/Kaplan Morrison Production
Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenheim and Brady Corbet, Producers
"A Complete Unknown" (Searchlight)
A Veritas Entertainment Group/White
Water/Range/Picture Company/Turnpike Films Production
Fred Berger, James Mangold and Alex Heineman, Producers
"Conclave" (Focus Features)
A FilmNation Entertainment/Indian Paintbrush/House Production
Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell and Michael A. Jackman, Producers
"Dune: Part Two" (Warner Bros.)
A Legendary Pictures Production
Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe and Denis Villeneuve, Producers
"Emilia Pérez" (Netflix)
A Netflix/Page 114/Why Not Productions/Pathé/ France 2 Cinéma/Saint Laurent by Anthony Vaccarello in association with Library Pictures International Production
Pascal Caucheteux and Jacques Audiard, Producers
"I'm Still Here" (Sony Pictures Classics)
A VideoFilmes/RT Features/Mact Production
Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira, Producers
"Nickel Boys" (Orion Pictures/Amazon MGM Studios)
A Plan B Entertainment/Anonymous Content/Louverture Films Production
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Joslyn Barnes, Producers
"The Substance" (MUBI)
A Match Factory/Working Title/Blacksmith/A Good Story Production
Coralie Fargeat and Tim Bevan & Eric Fellner, Producers
"Wicked" (Universal)
A Universal Pictures/Marc Platt Production
Marc Platt, Producer
Spoiler: "Conclave" or "A Complete Unknown"
Best Actor √ Correct
**PREDICTION** Adrien Brody in "The Brutalist" (A24)
Timothée Chalamet in "A Complete Unknown" (Searchlight)
Colman Domingo in "Sing Sing" (A24)
Ralph Fiennes in "Conclave" (Focus Features)
Sebastian Stan in "The Apprentice" (Briarcliff Entertainment/Rich Spirit)
Spoiler: Timothée Chalamet
Best Supporting Actor √ Correct
Yura Borisov in "Anora" (Neon)
**PREDICTION** Kieran Culkin in "A Real Pain" (Searchlight)
Edward Norton in "A Complete Unknown" (Searchlight)
Guy Pearce in "The Brutalist" (A24)
Jeremy Strong in "The Apprentice" (Briarcliff Entertainment/Rich Spirit)
Best Actress X Incorrect
Cynthia Erivo in "Wicked" (Universal)
Karla Sofía Gascón in "Emilia Pérez" (Netflix)
Mikey Madison in "Anora" (Neon)
**PREDICTION** Demi Moore in "The Substance" (MUBI)
Fernanda Torres in "I'm Still Here" (Sony Pictures Classics)
Spoiler: Mikey Madison
Best Supporting Actress √ Correct
Monica Barbaro in "A Complete Unknown" (Searchlight)
Ariana Grande in "Wicked" (Universal)
Felicity Jones in "The Brutalist" (A24)
Isabella Rossellini in "Conclave" (Focus Features)
**PREDICTION** Zoe Saldaña in "Emilia Pérez" (Netflix)
Best Directing √ Correct
**PREDICTION** "Anora" (Neon) Sean Baker
"The Brutalist" (A24) Brady Corbet
"A Complete Unknown" (Searchlight) James Mangold
"Emilia Pérez" (Netflix) Jacques Audiard
"The Substance" (MUBI) Coralie Fargeat
Best Animated Feature √ Correct
**PREDICTION** "Flow" (Sideshow/Janus Films)
"Inside Out 2" (Walt Disney)
"Memoir of a Snail" (IFC Films)
"Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl" (Netflix)
"The Wild Robot" (Universal)
Spoiler: "The Wild Robot"
Best Cinematography √ Correct
**PREDICTION** "The Brutalist" (A24) Lol Crawley
"Dune: Part Two" (Warner Bros.) Greig Fraser
"Emilia Pérez" (Netflix) Paul Guilhaume
"Maria" (Netflix) Ed Lachman
"Nosferatu" (Focus Features) Jarin Blaschke
Best Costume Design √ Correct
"A Complete Unknown" (Searchlight) Arianne Phillips
"Conclave" (Focus Features) Lisy Christl
"Gladiator II" (Paramount) Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
"Nosferatu" (Focus Features) Linda Muir
**PREDICTION** "Wicked" (Universal) Paul Tazewell
Best Documentary Feature √ Correct
"Black Box Diaries" (MTV Documentary Films)
**PREDICTION** "No Other Land"
"Porcelain War" (Picturehouse)
"Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat" (Kino Lorber)
"Sugarcane" (National Geographic Documentary Films)
Spoiler: "Porcelain War"
Best Documentary Short Film X Incorrect
"Death by Numbers"
"I Am Ready, Warden" (MTV Documentary Films)
**PREDICTION** "Incident" (The New Yorker)
"Instruments of a Beating Heart" (The New York Times Op-Docs/Cineric Creative)
"The Only Girl in the Orchestra" (Netflix)
Spoiler: All of them
Best Film Editing X Incorrect
"Anora" (Neon) Sean Baker
"The Brutalist" (A24) David Jancso
**PREDICTION** "Conclave" (Focus Features) Nick Emerson
"Emilia Pérez" (Netflix) Juliette Welfling
"Wicked" (Universal) Myron Kerstein
Spoiler: "Anora"
Best International Feature Film √ Correct
**PREDICTION** "I'm Still Here" (Brazil)
A VideoFilmes Produções Artísticas Production
"The Girl with the Needle" (Denmark)
A Nordisk Film Creative Alliance Production
"Emilia Pérez" (France)
A Pathé Production
"The Seed of the Sacred Fig" (Germany)
A Run Way Pictures Production
"Flow" (Latvia)
A Dream Well Studio Production
Spoiler: "Emilia Pérez"
Best Makeup and Hairstyling √ Correct
"A Different Man" (A24)
Mike Marino, David Presto and Crystal Jurado
"Emilia Pérez" (Netflix)
Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini
"Nosferatu" (Focus Features)
David White, Traci Loader and Suzanne Stokes-Munton
**PREDICTION** "The Substance" (MUBI)
Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli
"Wicked" (Universal)
Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth
Best Music (Original Score) √ Correct
**PREDICTION** "The Brutalist" (A24) Daniel Blumberg
"Conclave" (Focus Features) Volker Bertelmann
"Emilia Pérez" (Netflix) Clément Ducol and Camille
"Wicked" (Universal) John Powell and Stephen Schwartz
"The Wild Robot" (Universal) Kris Bowers
Best Music (Original Song) √ Correct
**PREDICTION** "El Mal" from "Emilia Pérez" (Netflix)
Music by Clément Ducol and Camille
Lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard
"The Journey" from "The Six Triple Eight" (Netflix)
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
"Like A Bird" from "Sing Sing" (A24)
Music and Lyric by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada
"Mi Camino" from "Emilia Pérez" (Netflix)
Music and Lyric by Camille and Clément Ducol
"Never Too Late" from "Elton John: Never Too Late" (Disney+)
Music and Lyric by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt and Bernie Taupin
Spoiler: "The Journey"
Best Production Design √ Correct
"The Brutalist" (A24)
Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia
"Conclave" (Focus Features)
Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter
"Dune: Part Two" (Warner Bros.)
Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
"Nosferatu" (Focus Features)
Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová
**PREDICTION** "Wicked" (Universal)
Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales
Spoiler: "The Brutalist"
Best Short Film – Animated X Incorrect
"Beautiful Men" (Miyu Distribution)
"In the Shadow of the Cypress"
"Magic Candies" (Toei Animation)
"Wander to Wonder" (Miyu Distribution)
**PREDICTION** "Yuck!" (Miyu Distribution)
Spoiler: "Wander to Wonder"
Best Short Film – Live Action X Incorrect
"A Lien" Sam Cutler-Kreutz and David Cutler-Kreutz
"Anuja" Adam J. Graves and Suchitra Mattai
"I'm Not a Robot" (The New Yorker) Victoria Warmerdam and Trent
**PREDICTION** "The Last Ranger" Cindy Lee and Darwin Shaw
"The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent" (Manifest) Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek
Spoiler: "Anuja" or "A Lien" or "The Man…"
Best Sound √ Correct
"A Complete Unknown" (Searchlight)
Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey and David Giammarco
**PREDICTION** "Dune: Part Two" (Warner Bros.)
Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill
"Emilia Pérez" (Netflix)
Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz and Niels Barletta
"Wicked" (Universal)
Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson and John Marquis
"The Wild Robot" (Universal)
Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo and Leff Lefferts
Spoiler: "A Complete Unknown"
Best Visual Effects √ Correct
"Alien: Romulus" (20th Century)
Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin and Shane Mahan
"Better Man" (Paramount)
Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs
**PREDICTION** "Dune: Part Two" (Warner Bros.)
Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer
"Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes" (20th Century)
Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke
"Wicked" (Universal)
Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk and Paul Corbould
Best Writing – Adapted Screenplay √ Correct
"A Complete Unknown" (Searchlight)
Screenplay by James Mangold and Jay Cocks
**PREDICTION** "Conclave" (Focus Features)
Screenplay by Peter Straughan
"Emilia Pérez" (Netflix)
Screenplay by Jacques Audiard;
In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi
"Nickel Boys" (Orion Pictures/Amazon MGM Studios)
Screenplay by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes
"Sing Sing" (A24)
Screenplay by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John "Divine G" Whitfield
Spoiler: "Nickel Boys"
Best Writing – Original Screenplay √ Correct
**PREDICTION** "Anora" (Neon)
Written by Sean Baker
"The Brutalist" (A24)
Written by Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
"A Real Pain" (Searchlight)
Written by Jesse Eisenberg
"September 5" (Paramount)
Written by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum
Co-Written by Alex David
"The Substance" (MUBI)
Written by Coralie Fargeat
Spoiler: "A Real Pain"
Watch the Oscars promo video here:
The 97th Academy Awards, for outstanding film achievements of 2024, will be presented on Sunday, March 2, 2025, at the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood, and will be televised live on ABC and in more than 200 territories worldwide. The ceremony will also be streamed live on Hulu.
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