Editor James A. Molnar makes his final predictions for the 96th Academy Awards.
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I’m predicting that the Christopher Nolan blockbuster will take home Best Picture and seven other statuettes, for a total of eight wins. If that happens, it will join an exclusive club. Only three Best Picture winners since 2009 taking home five or more statuettes (thank to Variety for the that stat). Last year, "Everything Everywhere All at Once" was the big winner of the night, taking home seven total Oscars, including Best Picture. The film won more above-the-line Oscars than any movie ever in the Oscars' 95-year history.
For Best Picture, it’s important to remember that the Preferential Ballot (Ranked Choice Voting) is in play. Watch this animated video from The Academy to learn more about this voting system for the top category.
The other big winners of the night will be “Barbie,” which I’m predicting will take home two Oscars.
The top acting categories seem to be neck-and-neck.
Cillian Murphy from “Oppenheimer” has competition with Paul Giamatti from “The Holdovers” and Jeffrey Wright from “American Fiction” on his heels.
Meanwhile, Lily Gladstone seems to be on her way to win with Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon”; however, Emma Stone’s powerful and transformative performance in Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things” is close behind.
If you’re looking for sure things (or as close as we can get on Oscar Night):
- Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
- Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
- Best Director: Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
- Best International Feature Film: “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
- Best Music (Original Song): "What Was I Made For?" from "Barbie" (Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell)
Some of the technical categories also seem to be between two big choices (see possible spoilers in the list below).
We’ll all find out what happens Sunday night. In the meantime, we’re here to help you win your Oscar pool or ballot contest.
Here are my final predictions (and the possible spoilers):
— FINAL: 18 out of 23 (78%) —
Past Predictions Record:
95th in 2023: 18 out of 23 (78%)
94th in 2022: 19 out of 23 (83%)
93rd in 2021: 18 out of 23 (78%)
92nd in 2020: 21 out of 24 (88%)
91st in 2019: 18 out of 24 (75%)
90th in 2018: 18 out of 24 (75%)
89th in 2017: 14 out of 24 (58%)
88th in 2016: 19 out of 24 (79%)
87th in 2015: 19 out of 24 (79%)
86th in 2014: 21 out of 24 (88%)
85th in 2013: 16 out of 24 (67%)
90th in 2018: 18 out of 24 (75%)
89th in 2017: 14 out of 24 (58%)
88th in 2016: 19 out of 24 (79%)
87th in 2015: 19 out of 24 (79%)
86th in 2014: 21 out of 24 (88%)
85th in 2013: 16 out of 24 (67%)
Final Tally Predictions
Best Picture Release Dates:
"Oppenheimer" (Universal): 8 of 13 7 out of 13
"Poor Things" (Searchlight): 1 of 11 4 out of 11
"Killers of the Flower Moon" (Apple Original Films): 1 of 10 0 out of 10
"Barbie" (Warner Bros.): 2 of 8 1 out of 8
"Maestro" (Netflix): 1 of 7 0 out of 7
"American Fiction" (Orion Pictures/Amazon MGM Studios): 1 of 5 √ Correct
"Anatomy of a Fall" (Neon): 1 of 5 √ Correct
"The Holdovers" (Focus Features): 1 of 5 √ Correct
"The Zone of Interest" (A24): 1 of 5 2 out of 5
"Napoleon" (Apple Original Films): 0 of 3 √ Correct
"The Creator" (Walt Disney): 0 of 2 √ Correct
"Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One" (Paramount): 0 of 2 √ Correct
"Nyad" (Netflix): 0 of 2 √ Correct
"Past Lives" (A24): 0 of 2 √ Correct
"Society of the Snow" (Netflix): 0 of 2 √ Correct
Best Picture Release Dates:
"Past Lives" - June 1
"Barbie" - July 20
"Oppenheimer" - July 20
"Anatomy of a Fall" - October 13
"Killers of the Flower Moon" - October 19
"The Holdovers" - October 27
"Maestro" - November 22
"Poor Things" - December 7
"American Fiction" - December 14
"The Zone of Interest" - December 15
Best Picture √ Correct
"American Fiction"
Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson and Jermaine Johnson, Producers
"Anatomy of a Fall"
Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion, Producers
"Barbie"
David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner, Producers
"The Holdovers"
Mark Johnson, Producer
"Killers of the Flower Moon"
Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi, Producers
"Maestro"
Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner,
Amy Durning and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers
PREDICTED: "Oppenheimer"
Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan, Producers
"Past Lives"
David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon and Pamela Koffler, Producers
"Poor Things"
Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone, Producers
"The Zone of Interest"
James Wilson, Producer
Best Director √ Correct
"Anatomy of a Fall," Justine Triet
"Killers of the Flower Moon," Martin Scorsese
PREDICTED: "Oppenheimer," Christopher Nolan
"Poor Things," Yorgos Lanthimos
"The Zone of Interest," Jonathan Glazer
Best Actor √ Correct
Bradley Cooper, "Maestro"
Colman Domingo, "Rustin"
Paul Giamatti, "The Holdovers"
PREDICTED: Cillian Murphy, "Oppenheimer"
Jeffrey Wright, "American Fiction"
Spoilers: Paul Giamatti or Jeffrey Wright
Best Supporting Actor √ Correct
Sterling K. Brown, "American Fiction"
Robert De Niro, "Killers of the Flower Moon"
PREDICTED: Robert Downey Jr., "Oppenheimer"
Ryan Gosling, "Barbie"
Mark Ruffalo, "Poor Things"
Best Actress X Incorrect
Annette Bening, "Nyad"
PREDICTED: Lily Gladstone, "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Sandra Hüller, "Anatomy of a Fall"
Carey Mulligan, "Maestro"
Emma Stone, "Poor Things"
Spoiler: Emma Stone
Best Supporting Actress √ Correct
Emily Blunt, "Oppenheimer"
Danielle Brooks, "The Color Purple"
America Ferrera, "Barbie"
Jodie Foster, "Nyad"
PREDICTED: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, "The Holdovers"
Best Animated Feature Film X Incorrect
"The Boy and the Heron"
Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki
"Elemental"
Peter Sohn and Denise Ream
"Nimona"
Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary
"Robot Dreams"
Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz
PREDICTED: "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse"
Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal
Spoiler: "The Boy and the Heron"
Best Cinematography √ Correct
"El Conde," Edward Lachman
"Killers of the Flower Moon," Rodrigo Prieto
"Maestro," Matthew Libatique
PREDICTED: "Oppenheimer," Hoyte van Hoytema
"Poor Things," Robbie Ryan
Spoiler: "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Best Costume Design X Incorrect
PREDICTED: "Barbie," Jacqueline Durran
"Killers of the Flower Moon," Jacqueline West
"Napoleon," Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
"Oppenheimer," Ellen Mirojnick
"Poor Things," Holly Waddington
Spoiler: "Poor Things"
Best Documentary Feature Film √ Correct
"Bobi Wine: The People's President"
Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp and John Battsek
"The Eternal Memory"
Maite Alberdi
"Four Daughters"
Kaouther Ben Hania and Nadim Cheikhrouha
"To Kill a Tiger"
Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe and David Oppenheim
PREDICTED: "20 Days in Mariupol"
Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath
Best Documentary Short Film √ Correct
"The ABCs of Book Banning"
Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic
"The Barber of Little Rock"
John Hoffman and Christine Turner
"Island in Between"
S. Leo Chiang and Jean Tsien
PREDICTED: "The Last Repair Shop"
Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
"Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó"
Sean Wang and Sam Davis
Spoilers: "The ABCs of Book Banning" or "Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó"
Best Film Editing √ Correct
"Anatomy of a Fall," Laurent Sénéchal
"The Holdovers," Kevin Tent
"Killers of the Flower Moon," Thelma Schoonmaker
PREDICTED: "Oppenheimer," Jennifer Lame
"Poor Things," Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Spoiler: "Anatomy of a Fall"
Best International Feature Film √ Correct
"Io Capitano" (Italy)
"Perfect Days" (Japan)
"Society of the Snow" (Spain)
"The Teachers' Lounge" (Germany)
PREDICTED: "The Zone of Interest" (United Kingdom)
Spoiler: "Perfect Days"
Best Makeup and Hairstyling X Incorrect
"Golda"
Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue
PREDICTED: "Maestro"
Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell
"Oppenheimer"
Luisa Abel
"Poor Things"
Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston
"Society of the Snow"
Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé
Spoiler: "Poor Things"
Best Music – Original Score √ Correct
"American Fiction," Laura Karpman
"Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny," John Williams
"Killers of the Flower Moon," Robbie Robertson
PREDICTED: "Oppenheimer," Ludwig Göransson
"Poor Things," Jerskin Fendrix
Spoiler: "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Best Music – Original Song √ Correct
"The Fire Inside" from "Flamin' Hot"
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
"I'm Just Ken" from "Barbie"
Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
"It Never Went Away" from "American Symphony"
Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
"Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)" from "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Music and Lyric by Scott George
PREDICTED: "What Was I Made For?" from "Barbie"
Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell
Best Production Design √ Correct
"Barbie"
Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
"Killers of the Flower Moon"
Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
"Napoleon"
Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff
"Oppenheimer"
Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman
PREDICTED: "Poor Things"
Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek
Spoiler: "Barbie"
Best Short Film – Animated √ Correct
"Letter to a Pig"
Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter
"Ninety-Five Senses"
Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess
"Our Uniform"
Yegane Moghaddam
"Pachyderme"
Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius
PREDICTED: "WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko"
Dave Mullins and Brad Booker
Spoiler: "Letter to a Pig"
Best Short Film – Live-Action √ Correct
"The After"
Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham
"Invincible"
Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron
"Knight of Fortune"
Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk
"Red, White and Blue"
Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane
PREDICTED: "The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar"
Wes Anderson and Steven Rales
Spoilers: "Red, White and Blue" or "The After"
Best Sound X Incorrect
"The Creator"
Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
"Maestro"
Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
"Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One"
Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
PREDICTED: "Oppenheimer"
Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O'Connell
"The Zone of Interest"
Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn
Spoiler: "The Zone of Interest"
Best Visual Effects √ Correct
"The Creator"
Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould
PREDICTED: "Godzilla Minus One"
Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima
"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3"
Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek
"Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One"
Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould
"Napoleon"
Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould
Spoiler: "The Creator"
Best Writing – Adapted screenplay √ Correct
PREDICTED: "American Fiction"
Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson
"Barbie"
Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
"Oppenheimer"
Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan
"Poor Things"
Screenplay by Tony McNamara
"The Zone of Interest"
Written by Jonathan Glazer
Spoilers: "Oppenheimer" or "Barbie"
Best Writing – Original screenplay √ Correct
PREDICTED: "Anatomy of a Fall"
Screenplay - Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
"The Holdovers"
Written by David Hemingson
"Maestro"
Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer
"May December"
Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik
"Past Lives"
Written by Celine Song
Spoilers: "The Holdovers" or "Past Lives"
Watch the "Barbie"-inspired Oscars promo video here:
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