Editor James A. Molnar makes his final predictions for the 95th Academy Awards.
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I’m predicting that the multiverse mindbender will take home Best Picture and six other statuettes. If that happens, it will join an exclusive club. Only two Best Picture winners since 2009 taking home five or more statuettes (thank to Variety for the that stat).
For Best Picture, it’s important to remember that the Preferential Ballot (Ranked Choice Voting) is in play. Watch this animated video from The Academy to learn more about this voting system for the top category.
This ranking system could hurt the chances for “Everything Everywhere,” but I think it’s momentum at this point is unstoppable.
The other two big winners of the night will be “All Quiet on the Western Front” and “Elvis,” which I’m predicting will take home three Oscars each.
The Best Actor category seems to be tied between Austin Butler for “Elvis” and Brendan Fraser for “The Whale.” With Butler being in the more likable movie, I predict he’ll be accepting the award come Oscar Sunday.
The Actress categories also seem to be neck-and-neck with an “Everything Everywhere” performance and something else: Michelle Yeoh in “Everything Everywhere All at Once” vs. Cate Blanchett in “Tár” and Jamie Lee Curtis in “Everything Everywhere All at Once” vs. Angela Bassett in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.” Ultimately, I think “Everything Everywhere” will prevail in both categories.
If you’re looking for sure things (or as close as we can get on Oscar Night):
- Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Ke Huy Quan in “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
- Best Animated Feature Film: “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
- Best International Feature Film: “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany)
- Best Visual Effects: “Avatar: The Way of Water”
The Best Music (Original Score) could get interesting. John Williams (91) could become the oldest winner of a competitive Oscar ever for composing “The Fabelmans.” I’ll let myself be surprised if this happens. I’m predicting “All Quiet on the Western Front” by Volker Bertelmann.
Some of the technical categories also seem to be between two big choices (see possible spoilers in the list below).
We’ll all find out what happens Sunday night. In the meantime, we’re here to help you win your Oscar pool or ballot contest.
Here are my final predictions (and the possible spoilers):
— FINAL: 18 out of 23 (78%) —
Past Predictions Record:
94th in 2022: 19 out of 23 (83%)
93rd in 2021: 18 out of 23 (78%)
92nd in 2020: 21 out of 24 (88%)
91st in 2019: 18 out of 24 (75%)
90th in 2018: 18 out of 24 (75%)
89th in 2017: 14 out of 24 (58%)
88th in 2016: 19 out of 24 (79%)
87th in 2015: 19 out of 24 (79%)
86th in 2014: 21 out of 24 (88%)
85th in 2013: 16 out of 24 (67%)
90th in 2018: 18 out of 24 (75%)
89th in 2017: 14 out of 24 (58%)
88th in 2016: 19 out of 24 (79%)
87th in 2015: 19 out of 24 (79%)
86th in 2014: 21 out of 24 (88%)
85th in 2013: 16 out of 24 (67%)
Final Tally Predictions
Best Picture Release Dates:
“My Year of Dicks” Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24): 7 out of 11 √ Correct
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix): 3 out of 9 4 out of 9
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight): 0 out of 9 √ Correct
“Elvis” (Warner Bros.): 3 out of 8 0 out of 8
“The Fabelmans” (Universal/Amblin Partners): 0 out of 7 √ Correct
“Tár” (Focus Features): 0 out of 6 √ Correct
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount): 1 out of 6 √ Correct
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Walt Disney): 0 out of 5 1 out of 5
“Avatar: The Way of Water” (Walt Disney): 1 out of 4 √ Correct
“Babylon” (Paramount): 1 out of 3 0 out of 3
“The Batman” (Warner Bros.): 0 out of 3 √ Correct
“Triangle of Sadness” (Neon): 0 out of 3 √ Correct
“The Whale” (A24): 0 out of 3 2 out of 3
“Living” (Sony Pictures Classics): 0 out of 2 √ Correct
“Women Talking” (Orion Pictures/United Artists Releasing): 1 out of 2 √ Correct
Best Picture Release Dates:
”Everything Everywhere All at Once” - March 24, 2022
”Top Gun: Maverick” - May 26, 2022
”Elvis” - June 23, 2022
”All Quiet on the Western Front” - Oct. 7, 2022
”Tár” - Oct. 7, 2022
”Triangle of Sadness” - Oct. 7, 2022
”The Banshees of Inisherin” - Oct. 20, 2022
”The Fabelmans” - Nov. 11, 2022
”Avatar: The Way of Water” - Dec. 15, 2022
”Women Talking” - Dec. 22, 2022
Best Picture √ Correct
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
Malte Grunert, Producer
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers
“Elvis”
Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss, Producers
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers
“The Fabelmans”
Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, Producers
“Tár”
Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert, Producers
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers
“Triangle of Sadness”
Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, Producers
“Women Talking”
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, Producers
Spoilers: “All Quiet on the Western Front” or “Top Gun: Maverick”
Best Director √ Correct
“The Banshees of Inisherin” Martin McDonagh
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
“The Fabelmans” Steven Spielberg
“Tár” Todd Field
“Triangle of Sadness” Ruben Östlund
Spoiler (unlikely): Steven Spielberg
Best Actor in a Leading Role X Incorrect
Austin Butler in “Elvis”
Colin Farrell in “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Brendan Fraser in “The Whale”
Paul Mescal in “Aftersun”
Bill Nighy in “Living”
Spoiler (possibly): Brendan Fraser
Best Actor in a Supporting Role √ Correct
Brendan Gleeson in “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Brian Tyree Henry in “Causeway”
Judd Hirsch in “The Fabelmans”
Barry Keoghan in “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Ke Huy Quan in “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Spoiler (unlikely): Brendan Gleeson
Best Actress in a Leading Role √ Correct
Cate Blanchett in “Tár”
Ana de Armas in “Blonde”
Andrea Riseborough in “To Leslie”
Michelle Williams in “The Fabelmans”
Michelle Yeoh in “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Spoiler (possibly): Cate Blanchett
Best Actress in a Supporting Role √ Correct
Angela Bassett in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Hong Chau in “The Whale”
Kerry Condon in “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Jamie Lee Curtis in “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Stephanie Hsu in “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Spoiler (possibly): Angela Bassett
Best Animated Feature Film √ Correct
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley
“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”
Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey
“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”
Joel Crawford and Mark Swift
“The Sea Beast”
Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger
“Turning Red”
Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins
Spoiler (unlikely): “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”
Best Cinematography √ Correct
“All Quiet on the Western Front” James Friend
“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” Darius Khondji
“Elvis” Mandy Walker
“Empire of Light” Roger Deakins
“Tár” Florian Hoffmeister
Spoiler: “Elvis”
Best Costume Design X Incorrect
“Babylon” Mary Zophres
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Ruth Carter
“Elvis” Catherine Martin
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” Shirley Kurata
“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” Jenny Beavan
Spoiler: “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Best Documentary (Feature) X Incorrect
“All That Breathes”
Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy Leifer
“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”
Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov
“Fire of Love”
Sara Dosa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman
“A House Made of Splinters”
Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström
“Navalny”
Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris
Spoiler (possibly): “Navalny”
Best Documentary (Short Subject) √ Correct
“The Elephant Whisperers”
Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga
“Haulout”
Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev
“How Do You Measure a Year?”
Jay Rosenblatt
“The Martha Mitchell Effect”
Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison
“Stranger at the Gate”
Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
Spoiler (possibly): “Stranger at the Gate”
Best Film Editing √ Correct
“The Banshees of Inisherin” Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
“Elvis” Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” Paul Rogers
“Tár” Monika Willi
“Top Gun: Maverick” Eddie Hamilton
Spoiler (possibly): “Top Gun: Maverick”
Best International Feature Film √ Correct
”All Quiet on the Western Front” Germany
”Argentina, 1985” Argentina
”Close” Belgium
”EO” Poland
”The Quiet Girl” Ireland
Spoiler (unlikely): ”Argentina, 1985”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling X Incorrect
“All Quiet on the Western Front” Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová
“The Batman” Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Camille Friend and Joel Harlow
“Elvis” Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti
“The Whale” Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley
Spoiler (possibly): “The Whale”
Best Music (Original Score) √ Correct
“All Quiet on the Western Front” Volker Bertelmann
“Babylon” Justin Hurwitz
“The Banshees of Inisherin” Carter Burwell
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” Son Lux
“The Fabelmans” John Williams
Spoiler: “The Fabelmans”
Best Music (Original Song) √ Correct
“Applause” from “Tell It like a Woman”
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick”
Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
“Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler
“Naatu Naatu” from “RRR”
Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose
“This Is A Life” from “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne
Spoilers: “Lift Me Up” or “Hold My Hand”
Best Production Design X Incorrect
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole
“Babylon”
Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
“Elvis”
Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn
“The Fabelmans”
Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara
Spoiler (possibly): “Elvis”
Best Short Film (Animated) √ Correct
“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud
“The Flying Sailor” Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby
“Ice Merchants” João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano“My Year of Dicks” Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon
“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It” Lachlan Pendragon
Spoiler: “My Year of Dicks”
Best Short Film (Live Action) √ Correct
“An Irish Goodbye” Tom Berkeley and Ross White
“Ivalu” Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan
“Le Pupille” Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón
“Night Ride” Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen
“The Red Suitcase” Cyrus Neshvad
Spoiler: “Le Pupille” or “The Red Suitcase”
Best Sound √ Correct
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges
“The Batman”
Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson
“Elvis”
David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
Spoiler (possibly): “All Quiet on the Western Front”
Best Visual Effects √ Correct
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
“The Batman”
Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher
Spoiler (unlikely): “Top Gun: Maverick”
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay) √ Correct
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
Written by Rian Johnson
“Living”
Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
“Women Talking”
Screenplay by Sarah Polley
Spoiler: “All Quiet on the Western Front” or “Living”
Best Writing (Original Screenplay) √ Correct
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
Written by Martin McDonagh
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
“The Fabelmans”
Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
“Tár”
Written by Todd Field
“Triangle of Sadness”
Written by Ruben Östlund
Spoiler: “The Banshees of Inisherin”
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