Editor James A. Molnar makes his final predictions for the 94th Academy Awards.
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"The Power of the Dog" should leave the big night with at least one Oscar, for Best Director. But I'm predicting that will be its only statuette.
Jane Campion became the first woman to have more than one nomination in the Directing category, also nominated for 1993's "The Piano." She is the fourth woman to be nominated for Directing, Writing and Best Picture for the same film. She seems to have this category locked, and it's well deserved. She would become the third woman to accept this award.
For Best Picture, it's important to remember that the Preferential Ballot (Ranked Choice Voting) is in play. Watch this animated video from The Academy to learn more about this voting system for the top category.
With a recent surge in popularity and award wins, I'm predicting "CODA" to win Best Picture, which would make the film the first to win the top category without nominations for either Best Director or Best Film Editing. It would also become the first movie to win Best Picture with fewer than four total nominations since "Grand Hotel" in 1932, which won with only a single nomination. (Thanks to The Wrap for these great statistics.)
I'm predicting "CODA" will also win the other two categories for which it's nominated: Best Actor in a Supporting Role and Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay). Troy Kotsur is the second deaf actor to be nominated for playing a deaf character and he would be the second deaf actor to win. Previously, Marlee Matlin won an Oscar for her leading role in "Children of a Lesser God" (1986).
The Best Actress category might be the hardest to figure out. I'm predicting that Jessica Chastain ("The Eyes of Tammy Faye") will be walking up to the stage on Oscar Sunday, but it could also be Kristen Stewart, Penélope Cruz or Olivia Colman.
I'm also predicting Lin-Manuel Miranda to win Best Music (Original Song) for "Dos Oruguitas" from "Encanto." He would become the 17th person to become an "EGOT," someone who has won an Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and Tony Award. He would also become the third person to win all four of those awards plus a Pulitzer Prize, after Richard Rodgers and Marvin Hamlisch.
The big winner of the night with total Oscar wins should be "Dune." I'm predicting five wins out of 10 nominations, but there are certainly some potential spoilers waiting in the wings.
We'll all find out what happens Sunday night. In the meantime, we're here to help you win your Oscar pool or ballot contest.
Here are my final predictions (and the possible spoilers):
Here are my final predictions (and the possible spoilers):
— FINAL: 19 out of 23 (83%) —
Past Predictions Record:
93rd in 2021: 18 out of 23 (78%)
93rd in 2021: 18 out of 23 (78%)
92nd in 2020: 21 out of 24 (88%)
91st in 2019: 18 out of 24 (75%)
90th in 2018: 18 out of 24 (75%)
89th in 2017: 14 out of 24 (58%)
88th in 2016: 19 out of 24 (79%)
87th in 2015: 19 out of 24 (79%)
86th in 2014: 21 out of 24 (88%)
85th in 2013: 16 out of 24 (67%)
90th in 2018: 18 out of 24 (75%)
89th in 2017: 14 out of 24 (58%)
88th in 2016: 19 out of 24 (79%)
87th in 2015: 19 out of 24 (79%)
86th in 2014: 21 out of 24 (88%)
85th in 2013: 16 out of 24 (67%)
Final Tally Predictions
Best Picture Release Dates:
"Belfast"
"The Power of the Dog" (Netflix): 1 out of 12 √ Correct
"Dune" (Warner Bros.): 5 out of 10 6 out of 10
"Belfast" (Focus Features): 1 out of 7 1 out of 7
"West Side Story" (Walt Disney): 1 out of 7 √ Correct
"King Richard" (Warner Bros.): 2 out of 6 1 out of 6
"Don't Look Up" (Netflix): 0 out of 4 √ Correct
"Drive My Car" (Sideshow and Janus Films): 1 out of 4 √ Correct
"Nightmare Alley" (Searchlight): 0 out of 4 √ Correct
"Being the Ricardos" (Amazon Studios): 0 out of 3 √ Correct
"CODA" (Apple Original Films): 3 out of 3 √ Correct
"Encanto" (Walt Disney): 2 out of 3 1 out of 3
"Flee" (Neon): 0 out of 3 √ Correct
"Licorice Pizza" (Metro Goldwyn Mayer/United Artists Releasing): 0 out of 3 √ Correct
"The Lost Daughter" (Netflix): 0 out of 3 √ Correct
"No Time to Die" (Metro Goldwyn Mayer/United Artists Releasing): 0 out of 3 1 out of 3
"The Tragedy of Macbeth" (Apple Original Films/A24): 0 out of 3 √ Correct
"Cruella" (Walt Disney): 1 out of 2 √ Correct
"The Eyes of Tammy Faye" (Searchlight): 2 out of 2 √ Correct
"Parallel Mothers" (Sony Pictures Classics): 0 out of 2 √ Correct
"tick, tick...BOOM!" (Netflix): 0 out of 2 √ Correct
"The Worst Person in the World" (Neon): 0 out of 2 √ Correct
Best Picture Release Dates:
"CODA" - Aug. 13, 2021
"Dune" - Oct. 21, 2021
"Belfast" - Nov. 12, 2021
"The Power of the Dog" - Nov. 17, 2021
"King Richard" - Nov. 19, 2021
"Drive My Car" - Nov. 24, 2021
"Licorice Pizza" - Nov. 26, 2021
"West Side Story" - Dec. 9, 2021
"Don’t Look Up" - Dec. 10, 2021
"Nightmare Alley" - Dec. 16, 2021
Best Picture √ Correct
Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas, Producers
"CODA"
Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, Producers
"Don't Look Up"
Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers
"Drive My Car"
Teruhisa Yamamoto, Producer
"Dune"
Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter, Producers
"King Richard"
Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith, Producers
"Licorice Pizza"
Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers
"Nightmare Alley"
Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper, Producers
"The Power of the Dog"
Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier, Producers
"West Side Story"
Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers
Spoiler: "The Power of the Dog"
Best Director √ Correct
"Belfast" Kenneth Branagh
"Drive My Car" Ryusuke Hamaguchi
"Licorice Pizza" Paul Thomas Anderson
"The Power of the Dog" Jane Campion
"West Side Story" Steven Spielberg
Spoiler (very unlikely): Kenneth Branagh
Best Actor in a Leading Role √ Correct
Javier Bardem in "Being the Ricardos"
Benedict Cumberbatch in "The Power of the Dog"
Andrew Garfield in "tick, tick...BOOM!"
Will Smith in "King Richard"
Denzel Washington in "The Tragedy of Macbeth"
Spoiler (very unlikely): Benedict Cumberbatch
Best Actress in a Leading Role √ Correct
Jessica Chastain in "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"
Olivia Colman in "The Lost Daughter"
Penélope Cruz in "Parallel Mothers"
Nicole Kidman in "Being the Ricardos"
Kristen Stewart in "Spencer"
** This category is highly up-in-the-air **
Spoiler: Kristen Stewart or Penélope Cruz or Olivia Colman
Least likely: Nicole Kidman
Best Actor in a Supporting Role √ Correct
Ciarán Hinds in "Belfast"
Troy Kotsur in "CODA"
Jesse Plemons in "The Power of the Dog"
J.K. Simmons in "Being the Ricardos"
Kodi Smit-McPhee in "The Power of the Dog"
Spoiler (very unlikely): Kodi Smit-McPhee
Best Actress in a Supporting Role √ Correct
Jessie Buckley in "The Lost Daughter"
Ariana DeBose in "West Side Story"
Judi Dench in "Belfast"
Kirsten Dunst in "The Power of the Dog"
Aunjanue Ellis in "King Richard"
Spoiler (very unlikely): Aunjanue Ellis or Kirsten Dunst
Best Animated Feature Film √ Correct
"Encanto" Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer
"Flee" Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
"Luca" Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren
"The Mitchells vs. the Machines" Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht
"Raya and the Last Dragon" Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho
Spoiler: "Flee"
Best Cinematography √ Correct
"Dune" Greig Fraser
"Nightmare Alley" Dan Laustsen
"The Power of the Dog" Ari Wegner
"The Tragedy of Macbeth" Bruno Delbonnel
"West Side Story" Janusz Kaminski
Spoiler: "The Power of the Dog"
Best Costume Design √ Correct
"Cruella" Jenny Beavan
"Cyrano" Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran
"Dune" Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan
"Nightmare Alley" Luis Sequeira
"West Side Story" Paul Tazewell
Spoiler: "Dune"
Best Documentary (Feature) √ Correct
"Ascension" Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell
"Attica" Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry
"Flee" Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
"Summer of Soul (...Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)" Ahmir "Questlove" Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein
"Writing with Fire" Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh
Spoiler: "Flee"
Best Documentary (Short Subject) X Incorrect
"Audible" Matt Ogens and Geoff McLean
"Lead Me Home" Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk
"The Queen of Basketball" Ben Proudfoot
"Three Songs for Benazir" Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei
"When We Were Bullies" Jay Rosenblatt
Spoiler: "Lead Me Home" or "The Queen of Basketball"
Best Film Editing X Incorrect
"Don't Look Up" Hank Corwin
"Dune" Joe Walker
"King Richard" Pamela Martin
"The Power of the Dog" Peter Sciberras
"tick, tick...BOOM!" Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum
Spoiler: "Dune"
Best International Feature Film √ Correct
"Drive My Car" Japan
"Flee" Denmark
"The Hand of God" Italy
"Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom" Bhutan
"The Worst Person in the World" Norway
Spoiler (unlikely): "The Worst Person in the World" or "Flee"
Best Makeup and Hairstyling √ Correct
"Coming 2 America" Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer
"Cruella" Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon
"Dune" Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr
"The Eyes of Tammy Faye" Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh
"House of Gucci" Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras
Spoiler: "Dune" or "Cruella"
Best Music (Original Score) √ Correct
"Don't Look Up" Nicholas Britell
"Dune" Hans Zimmer
"Encanto" Germaine Franco
"Parallel Mothers" Alberto Iglesias
"The Power of the Dog" Jonny Greenwood
Spoiler: "The Power of the Dog"
Best Music (Original Song) X Incorrect
"Be Alive" from "King Richard"
Music and Lyric by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
"Dos Oruguitas" from "Encanto"
Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
"Down To Joy" from "Belfast"
Music and Lyric by Van Morrison
"No Time To Die" from "No Time to Die"
Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell
"Somehow You Do" from "Four Good Days"
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
Spoiler: "No Time to Die"
Best Production Design √ Correct
"Dune"
Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos
"Nightmare Alley"
Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
"The Power of the Dog"
Production Design: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards
"The Tragedy of Macbeth"
Production Design: Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
"West Side Story"
Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo
Spoiler: "Nightmare Alley"
Best Short Film (Animated) X Incorrect
"Affairs of the Art" Joanna Quinn and Les Mills
"Bestia" Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Díaz
"Boxballet" Anton Dyakov
"Robin Robin" Dan Ojari and Mikey Please
"The Windshield Wiper" Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez
Spoiler: "Affairs of the Art"
Best Short Film (Live Action) √ Correct
"Ala Kachuu - Take and Run" Maria Brendle and Nadine Lüchinger
"The Dress" Tadeusz Łysiak and Maciej Ślesicki
"The Long Goodbye" Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed
"On My Mind" Martin Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson
"Please Hold" K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse
Spoiler: "Please Hold"
Best Sound √ Correct
"Belfast" Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri
"Dune" Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
"No Time to Die" Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor
"The Power of the Dog" Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb
"West Side Story" Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy
Spoiler: "West Side Story"
Best Visual Effects √ Correct
"Dune" Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
"Free Guy" Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick
"No Time to Die" Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould
"Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings" Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver
"Spider-Man: No Way Home" Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick
Spoiler: "Spider-Man"
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay) √ Correct
"CODA" Screenplay by Siân Heder
"Drive My Car" Screenplay by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe
"Dune" Screenplay by Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth
"The Lost Daughter" Written by Maggie Gyllenhaal
"The Power of the Dog" Written by Jane Campion
Could forecast Best Picture
Spoiler: "The Power of the Dog"
Best Writing (Original Screenplay) √ Correct
"Belfast" Written by Kenneth Branagh
"Don't Look Up" Screenplay by Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay & David Sirota
"King Richard" Written by Zach Baylin
"Licorice Pizza" Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
"The Worst Person in the World" Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Spoiler: "Licorice Pizza"
Watch the Oscars promo:
The 94th Academy Awards, for outstanding film achievements of 2021, will be presented on Sunday, March 27, 2022, at the Dolby Theatre at Hollywood & Highland Center, and will be televised live on ABC and in more than 225 countries worldwide.
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