Editor James A. Molnar makes his final predictions for the 93rd Academy Awards.
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"Mank" is the seventh black-and-white film to be nominated for Costume Design and the seventeenth for Cinematography since separate categories for color and black-and-white films were merged in 1967. Though I don't expect it to win for either of those categories.
"Mank" could leave the big night with only one Oscar, for Production Design.
Could "The Trial of the Chicago 7" be a spoiler for Best Picture, which "Nomadland" seems to be the one to beat? There’s a chance, especially with the preferential ballot employed for the top category by the Academy’s accounting firm, PwC. With no other wins predicted, chances are probably slim.
Could "The Trial of the Chicago 7" be a spoiler for Best Picture, which "Nomadland" seems to be the one to beat? There’s a chance, especially with the preferential ballot employed for the top category by the Academy’s accounting firm, PwC. With no other wins predicted, chances are probably slim.
I'm predicting "Nomadland" will take home five statuettes (out of six nominations) with “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” getting three (out of five nominations).
Chadwick Boseman, who died on August 28, 2020, is the seventh performer to receive a posthumous nomination and I'm predicting that he will become the third to win. Peter Finch was the first posthumous acting winner (Actor in a Leading Role, “Network,” 1976) and Heath Ledger was the second (Actor in a Supporting Role, “The Dark Knight,” 2008).
We'll all find out what happens Sunday night. In the meantime, we're here to help you win your Oscar pool or ballot contest.
Here are my final predictions (and the possible spoilers):
Final Tally Predictions
Best Picture √ Correct
The 93rd Academy Awards, for outstanding film achievements of 2020, will be presented on Sunday, April 25, 2021, at Union Station Los Angeles and the Dolby Theatre at Hollywood & Highland Center, and will be televised live on ABC and in more than 225 countries worldwide.
One thing is for sure: Netflix should do really well come Oscar Sunday. The studio has the most nominations, with 35 nominations in total for titles such as “Mank” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7.” In distant second is Amazon with 12 nominations.
Chloé Zhao (“Nomadland”) is the first woman to receive four nominations in a single year. Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”) is the third woman with three nominations in a single year; Sofia Coppola and Fran Walsh both accomplished that feat in 2003. Fennell and Zhao are the sixth and seventh women to be nominated in the Directing category; it is the first time more than one woman has been nominated for Directing in the same year. Fennell is the first woman to be nominated for her feature film directing debut. Zhao is the first woman of color to be nominated for Directing. Previous women nominated for Directing are Lina Wertmüller, Jane Campion, Sofia Coppola, Kathryn Bigelow (the only winner), and Greta Gerwig.
I'm predicting Zhao will take home three Oscars and Fennell will take home the Oscar for Original Screenplay.
Chadwick Boseman, who died on August 28, 2020, is the seventh performer to receive a posthumous nomination and I'm predicting that he will become the third to win. Peter Finch was the first posthumous acting winner (Actor in a Leading Role, “Network,” 1976) and Heath Ledger was the second (Actor in a Supporting Role, “The Dark Knight,” 2008).
We'll all find out what happens Sunday night. In the meantime, we're here to help you win your Oscar pool or ballot contest.
Here are my final predictions (and the possible spoilers):
Final Tally Predictions
"Mank"(Netflix) – 1 out of 10 2 out of 10
"The Father" (Sony Pictures Classics) – 0 out of 6 2 out of 6
"Judas and the Black Messiah" (Warner Bros.) – 1 out of 6 2 out of 6
"Minari" (A24) – 1 out of 6 √ Correct
"Nomadland" (Searchlight) – 5 out of 6 3 out of 6
"Sound of Metal" (Amazon Studios) – 2 out of 6 √ Correct
"The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix) – 0 out of 6 √ Correct
"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" (Netflix) – 3 out of 5 2 out of 5
"Promising Young Woman" (Focus Features) – 1 out of 5 √ Correct
"News of the World" (Universal) – 0 out of 4 √ Correct
"One Night in Miami..." (Amazon Studios) – 0 out of 3 √ Correct
"Soul" (Walt Disney) – 2 out of 3 √ Correct
"Another Round" (Samuel Goldwyn Films) – 1 out of 2 √ Correct
"Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan" (Amazon Studios) – 0 out of 2 √ Correct
"Collective" (Magnolia Pictures/Participant) – 0 of out 2 √ Correct
"Emma" (Focus Features) – 0 out of 2 √ Correct
"Hillbilly Elegy" (Netflix) – 0 out of 2 √ Correct
"Mulan" (Walt Disney) – 0 out of 2 √ Correct
"Pinocchio" (Roadside Attractions) – 0 out of 2 √ Correct
"Tenet" (Warner Bros.) – 1 out of 2 √ Correct
— FINAL: 18 out of 23 (78%) —
Past Record:
92nd in 2020: 21 out of 24 (88%)
92nd in 2020: 21 out of 24 (88%)
91st in 2019: 18 out of 24 (75%)
90th in 2018: 18 out of 24 (75%)
89th in 2017: 14 out of 24 (58%)
88th in 2016: 19 out of 24 (79%)
87th in 2015: 19 out of 24 (79%)
86th in 2014: 21 out of 24 (88%)
85th in 2013: 16 out of 24 (67%)
90th in 2018: 18 out of 24 (75%)
89th in 2017: 14 out of 24 (58%)
88th in 2016: 19 out of 24 (79%)
87th in 2015: 19 out of 24 (79%)
86th in 2014: 21 out of 24 (88%)
85th in 2013: 16 out of 24 (67%)
Best Picture √ Correct“The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Philippe Carcassonne, Producers
“Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros.)
Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler, Producers
“Mank” (Netflix)
Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski, Producers
“Minari” (A24)
Christina Oh, Producer
“Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)
Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao, Producers
“Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features)
Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara, Producers
“Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche, Producers
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
Marc Platt and Stuart Besser, Producers
Spoiler: “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Best Director √ Correct
Thomas Vinterberg, “Another Round”
David Fincher, “Mank”
Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari”
Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland”
Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman”
Spoiler: Lee Isaac Chung
Best Actor in a Leading Role X Incorrect
Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal”
Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”
Gary Oldman, “Mank”
Steven Yeun, “Minari”
Spoiler: Anthony Hopkins
Best Actress in a Leading Role √ Correct
Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Andra Day, “The United States v. Billie Holiday”
Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman”
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”
Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”
** Toughest category to predict this year. **
Spoiler: Viola Davis or Carey Mulligan
Best Actor in a Supporting Role √ Correct
Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami”
Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal”
Lakeith Stanfield, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Spoiler: Sacha Baron Cohen (unlikely)
Best Actress in a Supporting Role √ Correct
Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy”
Olivia Colman, “The Father”
Amanda Seyfried, “Mank”
Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari”
Spoiler: Maria Bakalova or Olivia Colman
Best Animated Feature Film √ Correct
“Onward” (Pixar)
Dan Scanlon and Kori Rae
“Over the Moon” (Netflix)
Glen Keane, Gennie Rim and Peilin Chou
“A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon” (Netflix)
Richard Phelan, Will Becher and Paul Kewley
“Soul” (Pixar)
Pete Docter and Dana Murray
“Wolfwalkers” (Apple TV Plus/GKIDS)
Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stéphan Roelants
Spoiler: “Wolfwalkers” (unlikely)
Best Cinematography X Incorrect
“Judas and the Black Messiah,” Sean Bobbitt
“Mank,” Erik Messerschmidt
“News of the World,” Dariusz Wolski
“Nomadland,” Joshua James Richards
“The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Phedon Papamichael
Spoiler: “Mank”
Best Costume Design √ Correct
“Emma.,” Alexandra Byrne
“Mank,” Trish Summerville
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” Ann Roth
“Mulan,” Bina Daigeler
“Pinocchio,” Massimo Cantini Parrini
Spoiler: “Emma.”
Best Documentary (Feature) √ Correct
“Collective” (Magnolia Pictures and Participant)
Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana
“Crip Camp” (Netflix)
Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder
“The Mole Agent” (Gravitas Ventures)
Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez
“My Octopus Teacher” (Netflix)
Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster
“Time” (Amazon Studios)
Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn
Spoiler: “Time”
Best Documentary (Short Subject) X Incorrect
“Colette” (Time Travel Unlimited)
Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard
“A Concerto Is a Conversation” (Breakwater Studios)
Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
“Do Not Split” (Field of Vision)
Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook
“Hunger Ward” (MTV Documentary Films)
Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheuerman
“A Love Song for Latasha” (Netflix)
Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan
Spoiler: “A Love Song for Latasha” or “Colette”
Best Film Editing √ Correct
“The Father,” Yorgos Lamprinos
“Nomadland,” Chloé Zhao
“Promising Young Woman,” Frédéric Thoraval
“Sound of Metal,” Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
“The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Alan Baumgarten
Spoiler: “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Best International Feature Film √ Correct
“Another Round” (Denmark)
“Better Days” (Hong Kong)
“Collective” (Romania)
“The Man Who Sold His Skin” (Tunisia)
“Quo Vadis, Aida?”(Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Spoiler: “Quo Vadis, Aida?”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling √ Correct
“Emma,” Marese Langan, Laura Allen, Claudia Stolze
“Hillbilly Elegy,” Eryn Krueger Mekash, Patricia Dehaney, Matthew Mungle
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, Jamika Wilson
“Mank,” Kimberley Spiteri, Gigi Williams, Colleen LaBaff
“Pinocchio,” Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti
Spoiler: “Hillbilly Elegy”
Best Music (Original Song) X Incorrect
“Fight for You” from “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
“Hear My Voice” from “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite
“Húsavík” from “Eurovision Song Contest”
Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson
“Io Si (Seen)” from “The Life Ahead”
Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini
“Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami”
Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth
Spoiler: “Speak Now” or “Húsavík”
Best Music (Original Score) √ Correct
“Da 5 Bloods,” Terence Blanchard
“Mank,” Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
“Minari,” Emile Mosseri
“News of the World,” James Newton Howard
“Soul,” Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste
Spoiler: “Mank”
Best Production Design √ Correct
“The Father”
Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton
“Mank”
Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale
“News of the World”
Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan
“Tenet”
Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas
Spoiler: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Best Short Film (Animated) √ Correct
“Burrow” (Disney Plus/Pixar), Madeline Sharafian and Michael Capbarat
“Genius Loci” (Kazak Productions), Adrien Mérigeau and Amaury Ovise
“If Anything Happens I Love You” (Netflix), Will McCormack and Michael Govier
“Opera” (Beasts and Natives Alike), Erick Oh
“Yes-People” (CAOZ hf. Hólamói), Gísli Darri Halldórsson and Arnar Gunnarsson
Spoiler: “Burrow” or “Opera”
Best Short Film (Live Action) √ Correct
“Feeling Through,” Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski
“The Letter Room,” Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan
“The Present,” Farah Nabulsi
“Two Distant Strangers,” Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe
“White Eye,” Tomer Shushan and Shira Hochman
Spoiler: “The Letter Room” or “Feeling Through”
Best Sound √ Correct
“Greyhound,” Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman
“Mank,” Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin
“News of the World,” Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett
“Soul,” Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker
“Sound of Metal,” Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh
Spoiler: “Soul” (unlikely)
Best Visual Effects √ Correct
“Love and Monsters,” Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox
“The Midnight Sky,” Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins
“Mulan,” Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram
“The One and Only Ivan,” Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez
“Tenet,” Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher
Spoiler: “The Midnight Sky”
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay) X Incorrect
“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.” Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Nina Pedrad
“The Father,” Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
“Nomadland,” Chloé Zhao
“One Night in Miami,” Kemp Powers
“The White Tiger,” Ramin Bahrani
Spoiler: “The Father”
Best Writing (Original Screenplay) √ Correct
“Judas and the Black Messiah,” Screenplay by Will Berson, Shaka King; Story by Will Berson, Shaka King, Kenny Lucas, Keith Lucas
“Minari,” Lee Isaac Chung
“Promising Young Woman,” Emerald Fennell
“Sound of Metal,” Screenplay by Darius Marder, Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder, Derek Cianfrance
“The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Aaron Sorkin
Spoiler: “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
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