Oscar Odds 2013: 200 days to go… what movies are in?

OSCAR ODDS: Correspondent Devin Fuller looks at some of summer's best chances at Best Picture nominations come Oscar time. The 85th Academy Awards are now 200 days away. Take a look at the odds.

By Devin Fuller
TGK Correspondent, Twitter / Facebook

Summer is often the doldrums of the Oscar season; while Hollywood can rely on big booming blockbusters to fill its coffers, it keeps its prestige pictures close at bay for a few more months. Four years ago though, we received a massively successful summer blockbuster that also happened to be a major awards contender: “The Dark Knight.” Heath Ledger’s posthumous performance racked up one award after another, and the film’s massive box office and critical success seemed to be too big for the Academy to ignore. Yet to many an Oscar devotee’s surprise, “The Dark Knight’s” presumed spot was taken by Stephen Daldry’s “The Reader.”

Perhaps as a direct result, the following year the Academy bumped up the number of Best Picture nominations to 10 in order to ensure popular films like “The Dark Knight” had a better shot at awards glory. The change’s efficacy was debatable with films like “The Blind Side” receiving an unexpected Best Picture nomination. The recent change to a fluctuating pool of nominees (between five and 10) promised higher quality control, but inclusions as baffling as “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” (another Daldry film) seem to suggest greater issues with the Academy. Nevertheless, Christopher Nolan’s follow-up to “The Dark Knight” has arrived with the hope to do what its predecessor could not. Here are the odds with 200 days until the 85th Academy Awards:

‘The Dark Knight Rises’

Not “The Hunger Games.” Not “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey.” Not “Marvel’s The Avengers.” No, “The Dark Knight Rises” was undeniably the most anticipated film of 2012. As a result, “Rises” broke the record for the highest-grossing opening weekend for a non-3D film. Reviews were generally positive, but with expectations so unbearably high, it was inevitable that some found the film disappointing. Numerous film bloggers have pointed out perceived logical inconsistencies or plot holes, effectively saying the film is visually stunning (especially in IMAX) but far too ambitious and convoluted for its own good.

Anne Hathaway is appealing as Selina Kyle and Tom Hardy strikes a menacing figure as Bane (even with his bizarre vocal stylings), yet neither can surpass Heath Ledger’s now iconic performance as the Joker in “The Dark Knight.” The Academy has nominated final parts of trilogies before (“Toy Story 3,” “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”), even when the concluding installment was a step down in quality (“The Godfather: Part III”). But the current rules state that a film needs to be ranked number one in five percent of first-place votes to receive a nomination, and while “Rises” might be admired, it is tough to say whether it will be enough voters’ favorite film by the end of the year. (Read the TGK review.)

Oscar Odds for Best Picture: 9:1 (As of 9/27/12, 10:1)

‘Magic Mike’

Stay with me here for a moment. Let’s pretend that Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln” is an overblown historical mess, Tom Hooper’s “Les Misérables” is a disaster of epic proportions, Paul Thomas Anderson’s “The Master” is a pretentious self-indulgent takedown of Scientology and Quentin Tarantino completely loses it with “Django Unchained.” What film could possibly sneak in as a Best Picture nominee covered in baby oil and wearing only a G-string? Steven Soderbergh’s “Magic Mike.”

What sounded like a campy diversion for ladies’ night out turned out to be one of the most unexpected surprises of the summer. While the naked man asses may have brought in the audiences, the charming performance by Channing Tatum, the manic energy of Matthew McConaughey and the surprisingly nuanced character development made “Magic Mike” more than just a guilty pleasure. Academy voters might seem too chaste to recognize such a wanton celebration of the male physique, but they did set a precedent by nominating “The Full Monty” in 1997. So don’t count out “Magic Mike” just yet, especially if the film turns out to be one of the Academy’s last chances to recognize Soderbergh.

Odds: 10:1 (As of 9/27/12, 15:1)

‘To Rome with Love’

“Midnight in Paris” was the biggest hit of Woody Allen’s career, and Oscar responded by rewarding it with four nominations including Best Picture (the film won Best Original Screenplay). Allen’s European vacation continued with “To Rome with Love,” which was once titled “Nero Fiddles” after “Bop Decameron” proved to be too high-minded a literary reference. Questionable titles aside, the film is notable for being Allen’s return to acting for the first time since 2006’s “Scoop.” The box office has been decent for a Woody Allen film, but critics have mostly responded with a resounding “meh.” As the film lacks the driving momentum (and whimsical impersonations of F. Scott Fitzgerald and Gertrude Stein) that propelled “Midnight in Paris” to success, expect Oscar voters to pass on this one.

Odds: 20:1 (As of 9/27/12, 20:1)

Updated Odds (see last post):
“Moonrise Kingdom”: 5:1 9:1
“Beasts of the Southern Wild”: 6:1 9:1
“Amour”: 10:1 12:1
“Brave”: 15:1
“Prometheus”: 25:1

Talk Oscar Odds with Devin on Twitter and Facebook. What movies do you think have the best odds at next year's Oscars? Let us know by commenting here, on Twitter or Facebook. We'll recap more odds with 150 days to go.