84th Academy Awards nominations predictions (updated)

The Gold Knight Blog has been working on its list of potential Academy Awards nominees since last year with Prediction Central. After closely following the odds and all of awards season, this editor and fanatic is ready to predict the nominees in all 24 categories (and potential winners) — with approximately 75 percent confidence. This year's accuracy: 79/119, ~ 66.4%. (Last year's accuracy: 91/120, ~75.8%.)

FINAL UPDATE: View our final predictions and winners for the 84th Academy Awards

The Gold Knight Blog has been working on its list of potential Academy Awards nominees since last year with Prediction Central. After closely following the odds and all of awards season, this editor and fanatic is ready to predict the nominees in all 24 categories (and potential winners) — with approximately 75 percent confidence. This year's accuracy: 79/119, ~ 66.4%.
 (Last year's accuracy: 91/120, ~75.8%.)

Final Tally Prediction
"The Artist": 12 10 // "Hugo": 10 11 // "The Help": 7 4 // "The Descendants": 6 5
"Harry Potter…": 5 3 // "Moneyball": 5 6 // "War Horse": 5 6 // "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo": 3 5
"Tinker Tailer Soldier Spy": 3 correct // "Midnight in Paris": 3 4

Best Picture 6/9

SIX NOMINEES: NINE NOMINEES
"The Artist"
"The Descendants"
"The Help"
"Hugo"
"Midnight in Paris"
"Moneyball"
+ ""Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
+ "The Tree of Life"
+ "War Horse"

DARK HORSES: "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" and "War Horse"

Remember there are 5-10 nominations possible for Best Picture.

Best Director 4/5
Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
David Fincher, "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
Alexander Payne, "The Descendants"
Martin Scorsese, "Hugo"
+ Terrence Malic, "The Tree of Life"
DARK: Terrence Malick ("The Tree of Life") and Steven Spielberg ("War Horse")

Best Actor in a Leading Role 3/5
George Clooney, "The Descendants"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "J. Edgar"
Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"
Michael Fassbender, "Shame"
Brad Pitt, "Moneyball"
+ Demián Bichir, "A Better Life"
+ Gery Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
DARK: Gary Oldman ("Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"), Ryan Gosling ("The Ides of March" / "Drive") and Michael Shannon ("Take Shelter")

Best Actress in a Leading Role 4/5

Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"
Viola Davis, "The Help"
Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"
Tilda Swinton, "We Need to Talk About Kevin"
Michelle Williams, "My Week with Marilyn"
+ Rooney Mara, "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"

DARK: Rooney Mara ("The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo") and Elizabeth Olsen ("Martha Marcy May Marlene")

Best Actor in a Supporting Role 4/5
Kenneth Branagh, "My Week with Marilyn"
Albert Brooks, "Drive"
Jonah Hill, "Moneyball"
Nick Nolte, "Warrior"
Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"
+ Max von Sydow, "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
DARK: Ben Kingsley ("Hugo"), Alan Rickman ("Harry Potter…") and Andy Serkis ("Rise of Planet of the Apes")

Best Actress in a Supporting Role 4/5
Bérénice Bejo, "The Artist"
Jessica Chastain, "The Help"
Melissa McCarthy, "Bridesmaids"
Octavia Spencer, "The Help"
Shailene Woodley, "The Descendants"
+ Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs"
DARK: Vanessa Redgrave ("Coriolanus"), Carey Mulligan ("Drive"/"Shame") and Janet McTeer ("Albert Nobbs")

Best Original Screenplay 3/5
"The Artist," Michel Hazanavicius
"Bridesmaids," Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig
"50/50," Will Reiser
"Midnight in Paris," Woody Allen
"Win Win," Tom McCarthy
+ "Margin Call," J.C. Chandor
+ "A Separation," Asghar Farhadi
DARK: "Beginners" (Mike Mills) and "Young Adult" (Diablo Cody)

Best Adapted Screenplay 4/5
"The Descendants," Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne and Jim Rash
"The Help," Tate Taylor
"Hugo," John Logan
"Moneyball," Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian
"Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy," Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughan
+ "The Ides of March," George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon
DARK: "The Ides of March" (George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon) and "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" (Steven Zaillian )

Best Art Direction 4/5
"The Artist"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2"

"Hugo"

"Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy," Maria Djurkovic and Tatiana Macdonald
"War Horse"
+ "Midnight in Paris"
DARK: "Midnight in Paris," "Jane Eyre" and "The Help"

Best Cinematography 4/5
"The Artist"
"Hugo"
"Moneyball," Wally Pfister
"The Tree of Life"
"War Horse"
+ "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
DARK: "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" and "Drive"

Best Costume Design 3/5
"Anonymous," Lisy Christl
"The Artist," Mark Bridges
"The Help," Sharen Davis
"Hugo," Sandy Powell
"War Horse," Joanna Johnston
+ "Jane Eyre," Michael O'Connor
+ "W.E.," Arianne Phillips
DARK: "My Week with Marilyn" (Jill Taylor), "Jane Eyre" and "Tinker Tailer Soldier Spy"

Best Film Editing 5/5
"The Artist"
"The Descendants"
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
"Hugo"
"Moneyball"
DARK: "War Horse," "Beginners" (Olivier Bugge Coutte) and "Drive"

Best Makeup 2/3
"The Artist"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2"
"The Iron Lady"
+ "Albert Nobbs"
DARK: "Albert Nobbs," "Anonymous," "Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life" and "Hugo"  

Best Music — Original Score 4/5
"The Artist," Ludovic Bource
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo," Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
"Hugo," Howard Shore
"Tinker Tailer Soldier Spy," Alberto Iglesias
"War Horse," John Williams
+ "The Adventures of Tintin," John Williams
DARK: "Harry Potter…" (Alexandre Desplat) "The Adventures of Tintin" (John Williams), "Super 8" (Michael Giacchino)

Best Music — Original Song 1/2
"Albert Nobbs" — "Lay Your Head Down," Sinead O'Connor
"Gnomeo and Juliet" — "Hello Hello," Elton John
"The Help" — “The Living Proof,” written by Mary J. Blige, Harvey Mason, Jr., and Thomas Newman
"The Muppets" — "Man or Muppet"
"The Muppets" — "Pictures in My Head"
+ "Rio" — "Real in Rio"
DARK: "The Muppets" ("Life's a Happy Song"), "Hugo" (“Coeur Volant,” written by Elizabeth Cotnoir, Isabelle Geffroy & Howard Shore) and "Winnie the Pooh" ("So Long," written by Zooey Deschanel)

Best Sound Editing 2/5
"Drive"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2"
"Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol"
"Super 8," Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood
"Transformers: Dark of the Moon"
+ "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
+ "Hugo"
+ "War Horse"
DARK: "Hanna." "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" and "War Horse"

Best Sound Mixing 2/5
"The Artist"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2"
"Hugo"
"Super 8," Anna Behlmer, Tom Johnson, Andy Nelson, and Mark Ulano
"War Horse"
+ "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
+ "Moneyball"
+ "Transformers: Dark of the Moon"
DARK: "The Adventures of Tintin," "Pirates of the Caribbean…" and  "Rise of the Planet of the Apes"

Best Visual Effects 4/5
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2"
"Hugo"
"Rise of the Planet of the Apes"
"Transformers: Dark of the Moon"
"The Tree of Life"
+ "Real Steel"
DARK: "Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides" and "Captain America"

Best Animated Feature 3/5
"The Adventures of Tintin"
"Kung Fu Panda 2"
"Puss in Boots"
"Rango"
"Winnie the Pooh"
+ "A Cat in Paris"
+ "Chico & Rita"
DARK: "Arthur Christmas" and "Cars 2"

Best Foreign Language Film 3/5
Canada, "Monsieur Lazhar," Philippe Falardeau, director
Germany, "Pina," Wim Wenders, director
Iran, "A Separation," Asghar Farhadi, director
Poland, "In Darkness," Agnieszka Holland, director
Taiwan, "Warriors of the Rainbow: Seediq Bale," Wei Te-sheng, director
+ Belgium, "Bullhead"
+ Israel, "Footnote"
DARK: Belgium ("Bullhead," Michael R. Roskam, director) and Denmark ("Superclásico," Ole Christian Madsen, director)

Best Documentary Feature 2/5
"Bill Cunningham New York" (First Thought Films)
"If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front" (Marshall Curry Productions, LLC)
"Pina" (Neue Road Movies GmbH)
"Project Nim" (Red Box Films)
"Semper Fi: Always Faithful" (Tied to the Tracks Films, Inc.)
+ "Hell and Back Again," Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner
+ "Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory," Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky
+ "Undefeated," TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay and Richard Middlemas
DARK: "Buck" (Cedar Creek Productions) and "Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory" (@radical.media)

Best Documentary Short 3/5
"The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement," Purposeful Productions, Inc.
"Incident in New Baghdad," Morninglight Films
"Pipe Dreams," Leslie Iwerks Productions
"Saving Face," Milkhaus/Jungefilm
"Witness," Buche
+ "God Is the Bigger Elvis," Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson
+ "The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom," Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen

Best Short Film Animated 5/5
"Dimanche/Sunday," Patrick Doyon, director (National Film Board of Canada)
"The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore," William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg, directors (Moonbot Studios LA, LLC)
"La Luna," Enrico Casarosa, director (Pixar Animation Studios)
"A Morning Stroll," Grant Orchard, director and Sue Goffe, producer (Studio AKA)
"Wild Life," Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby, directors (National Film Board of Canada)
DARK: "I Tawt I Taw a Puddy Tat," Matthew O'Callaghan, director and Sam Register, executive producer (Warner Bros. Animation Inc.)

Best Short Film Live Action 0/5
“Je Pourrais Être Votre Grand-Mère (I Could Be Your Grandmother),” Bernard Tanguy, director-producer (Rézina Productions)
“Love at First Sight,” Michael Davies, director and Sandra Gorel, producer (Spellbound Films)
“The Road Home,” Rahul Gandotra, director-producer and Ameenah Ayub, producer (London Film School)
“The Roar of the Sea,” Ana Rocha Fernandes and Torsten Truscheit, directors (Niama Filmproduktion GmbH)
“Sailcloth,” Elfar Adalsteins, director-producer (Berserk Films)
+ "Pentecost," Peter McDonald and Eimear O'Kane
+ "Raju," Max Zähle and Stefan Gieren
+ "The Shore," Terry George and Oorlagh George
+ "Time Freak," Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey
+ "Tuba Atlantic," Hallvar Witzø


We are one day away from the 84th Academy Awards nominations announcement on Tuesday, January 24, 2012, at 5:35 a.m. PT. Watch the Academy's live webcast right here on The Gold Knight Blog Tuesday morning.