Here are editor James A. Molnar's final predictions for the 91st Academy Awards. In short, some surprises await us on Oscar Sunday.
When the envelopes are opened Sunday night at the Dolby Theatre, there could be more than one surprise awaiting the audience at the 91st Academy Awards, especially for Best Picture.
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I'm predicting one for the period piece and four for the foreign film, which seems to have the Academy’s attention, especially for director Alfonso Cuarón. Will it lead to a Best Picture win?
Could "Bohemian Rhapsody" be a spoiler for Best Picture? There’s a chance, especially with the preferential ballot employed for the top category by the Academy’s accounting firm, PwC. I'm predicting the film will tie with "Roma" for the most wins of the night.
That same preferential ballot could also help
“Black Panther,” the first comic book-based film to earn a Best Picture nomination. (Most likely not, however, for the top category, but look for a few wins in some of the other categories.)
In the acting categories, eight individuals are first-time nominees (Yalitza Aparicio, Olivia Colman, Marina de Tavira, Adam Driver, Sam Elliott, Richard E. Grant, Regina King, Rami Malek). Five of the nominees are previous acting winners (Mahershala Ali, Christian Bale, Sam Rockwell, Emma Stone, Rachel Weisz). Two were also nominated for acting last year (Willem Dafoe, Sam Rockwell). Which actors will walk home with the gold?
Lady Gaga is the second person to receive acting and song nominations for the same film (“A Star Is Born”). Mary J. Blige was the first, with her nominations for “Mudbound” last year. Look for a Gaga winner for Original Song.
The Cinematography nominations for “Cold War” and “Roma” mark the first time since 1966 that two black-and-white films have been nominated in the category in a single year. Since 1967, when the Academy eliminated a separate award category for black-and-white cinematography, there have been 15 black-and-white films nominated for Cinematography. Look for Cuarón to take home the statuette for "Roma."
Sandy Powell has the most nominations for Costume Design of any living person with 14. The overall record in the category belongs to Edith Head with 35 nominations. Could Powell take home her fourth Oscar?
We'll all find out Sunday night. In the meantime, we're here to help you win your Oscar pool or ballot contest.
Here are my final predictions (and the possible spoilers):
Final Tally
"Roma" – 4 out of 10 3 out of 10
"A Star Is Born" – 1 out of 8 √ Correct
"Vice" – 1 out of 8 √ Correct
"Black Panther" – 3 out of 7 √ Correct
"BlacKkKlansman" – 1 out of 6 √ Correct
"Bohemian Rhapsody" – 4 out of 5 √ Correct
"Green Book" – 0 out of 5 3 out of 5
"First Man" – 1 out of 4 √ Correct
"Mary Poppins Returns" – 0 out of 4 √ Correct
"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs" – 0 out of 3 √ Correct
"Can You Ever Forgive Me?" – 1 out of 3 0 out of 3
"Cold War" – 0 out of 3 √ Correct
"If Beale Street Could Talk" – 1 out of 3 √ Correct
"Isle of Dogs" – 0 out of 2 √ Correct
"Mary Queen of Scots" – 0 out of 2 √ Correct
"Never Look Away" – 0 out of 2 √ Correct
"RBG" – 1 out of 2 0 out of 2
— FINAL: 18 out of 24 (75%) —
Past Record: 90th in 2018: 18 out of 24 (75%)
89th in 2017: 14 out of 24 (58%)
88th in 2016: 19 out of 24 (79%)
87th in 2015: 19 out of 24 (79%)
86th in 2014: 21 out of 24 (88%)
85th in 2013: 16 out of 24 (67%)
Best Picture X Incorrect
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”
“Vice”
Spoilers: “Green Book” or “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Best Director √ Correct
“BlacKkKlansman,” Spike Lee
“Cold War,” Paweł Pawlikowski
“The Favourite,” Yorgos Lanthimos
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“Vice,” Adam McKay
Spoiler: Spike Lee
Best Actor in a Leading Role √ Correct
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
Spoiler: Christian Bale
Best Actress in a Leading Role X Incorrect
Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Spoiler: Olivia Colman
Best Actor in a Supporting Role X Incorrect
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”
Spoiler: Mahershala Ali (the prognosticators choice)
Best Actress in a Supporting Role √ Correct
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
Spoiler: Rachel Weisz or Amy Adams
Best Writing – Adapted Screenplay √ Correct
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
“BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins
“A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters
Spoiler: “A Star Is Born”
Best Writing – Original Screenplay X Incorrect
“The Favourite,” Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
“First Reformed,” Paul Schrader
“Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“Vice,” Adam McKay
Spoiler: “Green Book”
Best Animated Feature Film √ Correct
“Incredibles 2,” Brad Bird, John Walker and Nicole Paradis Grindle
“Isle of Dogs,” Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson
“Mirai,” Mamoru Hosoda and Yuichiro Saito
“Ralph Breaks the Internet,” Rich Moore, Phil Johnston and Clark Spencer
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller
Best Cinematography √ Correct
“Cold War,” Łukasz Zal
“The Favourite,” Robbie Ryan
“Never Look Away,” Caleb Deschanel
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“A Star Is Born,” Matthew Libatique
Spoiler: “Cold War”
Best Costume Design √ Correct
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Mary Zophres
“Black Panther,” Ruth Carter
“The Favourite,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Queen of Scots,” Alexandra Byrne
Spoiler: “The Favourite” (probably the safer bet)
Best Documentary – Feature X Incorrect
“Free Solo,” Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, Evan Hayes and Shannon Dill
“Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes and Su Kim
“Minding the Gap,” Bing Liu and Diane Quon
“Of Fathers and Sons,” Talal Derki, Ansgar Frerich, Eva Kemme and Tobias N. Siebert
“RBG,” Betsy West and Julie Cohen
Spoiler: “Free Solo”
Best Documentary – Short Subject √ Correct
“Black Sheep,” Ed Perkins and Jonathan Chinn
“End Game,” Rob Epstein and Jeffrey Friedman
“Lifeboat,” Skye Fitzgerald and Bryn Mooser
“A Night at The Garden,” Marshall Curry
“Period. End of Sentence.” Rayka Zehtabchi and Melissa Berton
Spoiler: “Black Sheep”
Best Film Editing √ Correct
“BlacKkKlansman,” Barry Alexander Brown
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Ottman
“The Favourite,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis
“Green Book,” Patrick J. Don Vito
“Vice,” Hank Corwin
Spoiler: “Vice”
Best Foreign Language Film √ Correct
“Capernaum” (Lebanon)
“Cold War” (Poland)
“Never Look Away” (Germany)
“Roma” (Mexico)
“Shoplifters” (Japan)
Spoiler: “Cold War”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling √ Correct
“Border,” Göran Lundström & Pamela Goldammer
“Mary Queen of Scots,” Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher & Jessica Brooks
“Vice,” Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe & Patricia DeHaney
Best Music – Original Score √ Correct
“Black Panther,” Ludwig Goransson
“BlacKkKlansman,” Terence Blanchard
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell
“Isle of Dogs,” Alexandre Desplat
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Marc Shaiman
Spoiler: “If Beale Street Could Talk” or “Mary Poppins Returns”
Best Music – Original Song √ Correct
“All The Stars” from “Black Panther”
Music by Mark Spears, Kendrick Lamar Duckworth and Anthony Tiffith
Lyric by Kendrick Lamar Duckworth, Anthony Tiffith and Solana Rowe
“I’ll Fight” from “RBG”
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns”
Music by Marc Shaiman Lyric by Scott Wittman and Marc Shaiman
“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born”
Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
Music and Lyric by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch
Spoiler: “The Place Where Lost Things Go”
Best Production Design √ Correct
“Black Panther,” Hannah Beachler & Jay Hart
“The Favourite,” Fiona Crombie & Alice Felton
“First Man,” Nathan Crowley & Kathy Lucas
“Mary Poppins Returns,”John Myhre & Gordon Sim
“Roma,” Eugenio Caballero & Bárbara Enríquez
Spoiler: “The Favourite” (again, probably the safer bet)
Best Short Film – Animated √ Correct
“Animal Behaviour,” Alison Snowden and David Fine
“Bao,” Domee Shi and Becky Neiman-Cobb
“Late Afternoon,” Louise Bagnall and Nuria González Blanco
“One Small Step,” Andrew Chesworth and Bobby Pontillas
“Weekends,” Trevor Jimenez
Spoiler: “Weekends”
Best Short Film – Live Action X Incorrect
“Detainment,” Vincent Lambe and Darren Mahon
“Fauve,” Jeremy Comte and Maria Gracia Turgeon
“Marguerite,” Marianne Farley and Marie-Hélène Panisset
“Mother,” Rodrigo Sorogoyen and María del Puy Alvarado
“Skin,” Guy Nattiv and Jaime Ray Newman
Spoiler: “Skin” or “Fauve”
Best Sound Editing √ Correct
“Black Panther,” Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone
“First Man,” Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan
“A Quiet Place,” Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
“Roma,” Sergio Díaz and Skip Lievsay
Spoiler: “First Man” or “A Quiet Place”
Best Sound Mixing √ Correct
“Black Panther,” Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali
“First Man,” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis
“Roma,” Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio García
“A Star Is Born,” Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow
Spoiler: “First Man”
Best Visual Effects √ Correct
“Avengers: Infinity War,” Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick
“Christopher Robin,” Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Chris Corbould
“First Man,” Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J.D. Schwalm
“Ready Player One,” Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and David Shirk
“Solo: A Star Wars Story,” Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Dominic Tuohy
Spoiler: “Avengers: Infinity War”
The 91st Academy Awards, for outstanding film achievements of 2018, will be presented on Sunday, February 24, 2019, at the Dolby Theatre at Hollywood & Highland Center, and will be televised live on ABC and in more than 225 countries worldwide.
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