Final predictions: 89th Academy Awards - Oscars 2017 (updated)

When the golden envelopes are opened Sunday night at the Dolby Theatre, there could be more than one surprise awaiting the audience at the 89th Academy Awards.

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When the golden envelopes are opened Sunday night at the Dolby Theatre, there could be more than one surprise awaiting the audience at the 89th Academy Awards.

Will one film — “La La Land” — break records and leave the night with double-digit Oscars? Or will a few dark horses waiting in the wings steal the most nominated film’s thunder?

The movie musical does seem to have a majority of its categories locked, including Picture, Director, Actress, Cinematography, Editing, both music categories and Production Design. That's eight Oscars right there. The rest of the categories in which the film is nominated  — five, if you're keeping track — may not go its way.

That may sound dramatic, but Oscar Sunday always has the ability to surprise and excite over certain categories. There are 6,687 voting members of the Academy, with 683 newly invited members. Forty percent of the new members are international — from more than 50 different countries. Those new members could impact the final vote.

Quite a few of the top nominated films could walk away empty handed or, if lucky, with one or two wins. "Arrival" seems to be in the former slot – zero wins out of eight possible. "Moonlight," however, should pick up at least one win with Mahershala Ali for Supporting Actor. Other categories may fall its way, if the voters want to share the love.

"Manchester by the Sea" is looking to pick up at least one Oscar as well, whether it's for Lead Actor Casey Affleck — I predict Denzel Washington for "Fences" — or Original Screenplay, which could go to "La La Land."

We'll all find out Sunday night. In the meantime, we're here to help you win your Oscar pool or ballot  contest.

Here are my final predictions (and the possible spoilers):

Final Tally (out of total nominations):
"La La Land" - 9 out of 14 -  6 out of 14 
"Arrival" - 0 out of 8 -  1 out of 8 
"Moonlight" - 1 out of 8 -  3 out of 8 
"Manchester by the Sea" - 1 out of 6 -  2 out of 6 
"Fences" - 2 out of 4 -  1 out of 4 


----- FINAL: 14 out of 24 -----

Best Picture X Incorrect
"Arrival"
"Fences"

"Hacksaw Ridge"

"Hell or High Water"
"Hidden Figures"

"La La Land"

"Lion"

"Manchester by the Sea"

"Moonlight"

Best Director √ Correct
Damien Chazelle, "La La Land"
Mel Gibson, "Hacksaw Ridge"
Barry Jenkins, "Moonlight"
Kenneth Lonergan, "Manchester by the Sea"
Denis Villeneuve, "Arrival"

Best Actor in a Leading Role X Incorrect
Casey Affleck, "Manchester by the Sea"
Andrew Garfield, "Hacksaw Ridge"
Ryan Gosling, "La La Land"
Viggo Mortensen, "Captain Fantastic"
Denzel Washington in "Fences"
Close Call: Casey Affleck

Best Actor in a Supporting Role  √ Correct
Mahershala Ali, "Moonlight"
Jeff Bridges, "Hell or High Water"
Lucas Hedges, "Manchester by the Sea"
Dev Patel, "Lion"
Michael Shannon, "Nocturnal Animals"
Dark Horse: Dev Patel

Best Actress in a Leading Role  √ Correct
Isabelle Huppert, "Elle"
Ruth Negga, "Loving"
Natalie Portman, "Jackie"
Emma Stone, "La La Land"
Meryl Streep, "Florence Foster Jenkins"

Best Actress in a Supporting Role  √ Correct
Viola Davis, "Fences"
Naomie Harris, "Moonlight"
Nicole Kidman, "Lion"
Octavia Spencer, "Hidden Figures"
Michelle Williams, "Manchester by the Sea"
Dark Horse: Michelle Williams

Best Writing – Adapted Screenplay √ Correct
"Arrival"
"Fences"
"Hidden Figures"
"Lion"
"Moonlight"
Dark Horse: "Arrival"

Best Writing – Original Screenplay √ Correct
"Hell or High Water"
"La La Land"
"The Lobster"
"Manchester by the Sea"
"20th Century Women"
Close Call: "La La Land"

Best Animated Feature Film √ Correct
"Kubo and the Two Strings"
"Moana"
"My Life as a Zucchini"
"The Red Turtle"
"Zootopia"
Dark Horse: "Kubo"

Best Cinematography √ Correct
"Arrival" – Bradford Young
"La La Land" – Linus Sandgren
"Lion" – Greig Fraser
"Moonlight" – James Laxton
"Silence" – Rodrigo Prieto
Dark Horse: "Lion"

Best Costume Design X Incorrect
"Allied" – Joanna Johnston
"Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them" – Colleen Atwood
"Florence Foster Jenkins" – Consolata Boyle
"Jackie" – Madeline Fontaine
"La La Land" – Mary Zophres
Close Call: "La La Land"

Best Documentary – Feature  √ Correct
"Fire at Sea" – Gianfranco Rosi and Donatella Palermo
"I Am Not Your Negro" – Raoul Peck, Rémi Grellety and Hébert Peck
"Life, Animated" – Roger Ross Williams and Julie Goldman
"O.J.: Made in America" – Ezra Edelman and Caroline Waterlow
"13th" – Ava DuVernay, Spencer Averick and Howard Barish
Dark Horses: "I Am Not Your Negro" and "13th"

Best Documentary – Short Subject X Incorrect
"Extremis" – Dan Krauss
"4.1 Miles" – Daphne Matziaraki
"Joe’s Violin" – Kahane Cooperman and Raphaela Neihausen
"Watani: My Homeland" – Marcel Mettelsiefen and Stephen Ellis
"The White Helmets" – Orlando von Einsiedel and Joanna Natasegara
Dark Horse: "Joe's Violin"

Best Film Editing X Incorrect
"Arrival" – Joe Walker
"Hacksaw Ridge" – John Gilbert
"Hell or High Water" – Jake Roberts
"La La Land" – Tom Cross
"Moonlight" – Nat Sanders and Joi McMillon
Dark Horse: "Hacksaw Ridge"

Best Foreign Language Film X Incorrect
"Land of Mine" (Denmark)
"A Man Called Ove" (Sweden)
"The Salesman" (Iran)
"Tanna" (Australia)
"Toni Erdmann" (Germany)
Close Call: "The Salesman" and "Toni Erdmann"

Best Makeup and Hairstyling X Incorrect
"A Man Called Ove" – Eva von Bahr and Love Larson
"Star Trek Beyond" – Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo
"Suicide Squad" – Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini and Christopher Nelson
Dark Horse: "A Man Called Ove"

Best Music – Original Score √ Correct
"Jackie" – Mica Levi
"La La Land" – Justin Hurwitz
"Lion" – Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka
"Moonlight" – Nicholas Britell
"Passengers" – Thomas Newman

Best Music – Original Song √ Correct
"Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" from "La La Land"
     Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
"Can’t Stop The Feeling" from "Trolls"
     Music and Lyric by Justin Timberlake, Max Martin and Karl Johan Schuster
"City Of Stars" from "La La Land"
     Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
"The Empty Chair" from "Jim: The James Foley Story"
     Music and Lyric by J. Ralph and Sting
"How Far I’ll Go" from "Moana"
     Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
Dark Horse: "How Far I'll Go"

Best Production Design √ Correct
"Arrival"
"Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them"
"Hail, Caesar!"
"La La Land"
"Passengers"
Dark Horse: "Arrival"

Best Short Film – Animated  √ Correct
"Blind Vaysha" – Theodore Ushev
"Borrowed Time" – Andrew Coats and Lou Hamou-Lhadj
"Pear Cider and Cigarettes" – Robert Valley and Cara Speller
"Pearl" – Patrick Osborne
"Piper" – Alan Barillaro and Marc Sondheimer

Best Short Film – Live Action X Incorrect
"Ennemis Intérieurs" – Sélim Azzazi
"La Femme et le TGV" – Timo von Gunten and Giacun Caduff
"Silent Nights" – Aske Bang and Kim Magnusson
"Sing" – Kristof Deák and Anna Udvardy
"Timecode" – Juanjo Giménez
Dark Horse: "Timecode"

Best Sound Editing X Incorrect
"Arrival"
"Deepwater Horizon"
"Hacksaw Ridge"
"La La Land"
"Sully"
Dark Horses: "Arrival" and "La La Land"

Best Sound Mixing X Incorrect
"Arrival"
"Hacksaw Ridge"
"La La Land"
"Rogue One: A Star Wars Story"
"13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi"
Dark Horse: "Arrival"

Best Visual Effects √ Correct
"Deepwater Horizon"
"Doctor Strange"
"The Jungle Book"
"Kubo and the Two Strings"
"Rogue One: A Star Wars Story"

Small Chance: "Rogue One"



The 89th Academy Awards, for outstanding film achievements of 2016, will be presented on Sunday, Feb. 26, 2017, at the Dolby Theatre at Hollywood & Highland Center, and will be televised live on ABC and in more than 225 countries worldwide. Jimmy Kimmel hosts.