OSCAR ODDS: Correspondent Devin Fuller looks at some of summer's best chances at Best Picture nominations come Oscar time. The 86th Academy Awards are now 200 days away. Take a look at the odds.
By Devin Fuller
TGK Correspondent, Twitter / Facebook
Time to wake up, Oscar lovers! The start of another Oscar season is upon us. As usual, we're going to look at potential contenders from the first half of the year before the studios begin releasing their prestige stuff in the fall. I have to say that while plenty of good films have been released, pickings are pretty slim for films with a real shot at Best Picture.* I've decided to focus on four possible nominees based on their pedigree, buzz and general award worthiness.
‘Fruitvale Station’
This year's winner of the Grand Jury prize at Sundance (which "Beasts of the Southern Wild" won last year) took on an even greater relevance after being released the same weekend of the George Zimmerman trial jury decision. Ryan Coogler's first feature is a remarkably assured look at the last day of Oscar Grant's life before he was killed by a police officer on New Year's Day 2009.
Michael B. Jordan's performance has been highly acclaimed by critics, and the moving film has drawn comparisons to Spike Lee's "Do the Right Thing" for its honest portrayal of the everyday life of a young African American man. Though, like last year's "Amour," it's also gaining a reputation as a great film that you will never want to sit through again. While the film has already connected with audiences and made an impact, Oscar voters looking to be progressive will surely consider "Fruitvale Station."
Oscar Odds for Best Picture: 7:1
‘Lee Daniels’ The Butler’
After "The Paperboy" failed to make much of an impression with critics or at the box office (despite a SAG award nomination for Nicole Kidman's wackadoodle performance), Lee Daniels returns with "Lee Daniels' The Butler," which was the subject of a silly title dispute after Warner Bros. claimed copyright infringement on a 1916 short film nobody had ever heard of. As a result, the film got a bunch of free publicity, and everyone's still going to call it "The Butler" anyway. It's got Forest Whitaker as the titular butler and, in her return to acting after a 15-year absence, Oprah Winfrey as his trashy wife. Some are already saying Winfrey's got an Oscar in the bag.
The film itself is a star-studded portrayal of the life of Eugene Allen, a butler who worked at the White House for 34 years. The film's already had a great reception from Academy members and will no doubt get a big push from the Weinstein Company, but it will likely have to fight for the "social awareness" mantle with both "Fruitvale Station" and possibly "Mandela."
Odds: 8:1
‘Blue Jasmine’
The first of the blue films in this month's column, Woody Allen's latest offers a riveting performance from Cate Blanchett as a socialite who loses it all after her husband's Madoff-like scheme. Blanchett's an early lock for a Best Actress nomination, and Woody's led plenty of other actresses to Oscar gold, so that seems to be the likeliest bet.
The film itself has been well reviewed, if not quite as loved as Woody's previous Best Picture contender "Midnight in Paris," though its resemblance to a past Best Picture nominee certainly won't hurt its chances. Still, I'm not sold on its Best Picture odds yet until we see how the year's later releases pan out.
Odds: 15:1
‘Blue Is the Warmest Color’
Blue is actually a very cool color, but flawed color theory aside, this three-hour French language drama about two young women who fall in love won the Palme d'Or at this year's Cannes Film Festival. The last two previous winners "Amour" and "The Tree of Life" both went on to garner multiple Oscar nominations, though neither of them featured a twenty-minute lesbian sex scene.
Additionally, they came from respected directors Michael Haneke and Terence Malick, while "Blue" is by the relatively unknown (to American audiences) Abdellatif Kechiche (try saying that three times fast). Two of his films have won him the César award (the French Oscar) for Best Director, so conceivably he'd be on the radar for a foreign language film nomination, but the film's release date in France is too late for consideration for that category. Given the controversial content however, it's unlikely the more conservative members of the Academy will consider "Blue" at all.
Odds: 20:1
Check back here in another 50 days when after the Toronto International Film Festival the frontrunners start to assert themselves from the rest of the pack!
* “Spring Breakers,” you will always be Best Picture in my heart.
Talk Oscar Odds with Devin on Twitter and Facebook. What movies do you think have the best odds at next year's Oscars? Let us know by commenting here, on Twitter or Facebook. We'll recap more odds with 150 days to go.
TGK Correspondent, Twitter / Facebook
Time to wake up, Oscar lovers! The start of another Oscar season is upon us. As usual, we're going to look at potential contenders from the first half of the year before the studios begin releasing their prestige stuff in the fall. I have to say that while plenty of good films have been released, pickings are pretty slim for films with a real shot at Best Picture.* I've decided to focus on four possible nominees based on their pedigree, buzz and general award worthiness.‘Fruitvale Station’
Michael B. Jordan's performance has been highly acclaimed by critics, and the moving film has drawn comparisons to Spike Lee's "Do the Right Thing" for its honest portrayal of the everyday life of a young African American man. Though, like last year's "Amour," it's also gaining a reputation as a great film that you will never want to sit through again. While the film has already connected with audiences and made an impact, Oscar voters looking to be progressive will surely consider "Fruitvale Station."
Oscar Odds for Best Picture: 7:1
‘Lee Daniels’ The Butler’After "The Paperboy" failed to make much of an impression with critics or at the box office (despite a SAG award nomination for Nicole Kidman's wackadoodle performance), Lee Daniels returns with "Lee Daniels' The Butler," which was the subject of a silly title dispute after Warner Bros. claimed copyright infringement on a 1916 short film nobody had ever heard of. As a result, the film got a bunch of free publicity, and everyone's still going to call it "The Butler" anyway. It's got Forest Whitaker as the titular butler and, in her return to acting after a 15-year absence, Oprah Winfrey as his trashy wife. Some are already saying Winfrey's got an Oscar in the bag.
The film itself is a star-studded portrayal of the life of Eugene Allen, a butler who worked at the White House for 34 years. The film's already had a great reception from Academy members and will no doubt get a big push from the Weinstein Company, but it will likely have to fight for the "social awareness" mantle with both "Fruitvale Station" and possibly "Mandela."
Odds: 8:1
‘Blue Jasmine’The first of the blue films in this month's column, Woody Allen's latest offers a riveting performance from Cate Blanchett as a socialite who loses it all after her husband's Madoff-like scheme. Blanchett's an early lock for a Best Actress nomination, and Woody's led plenty of other actresses to Oscar gold, so that seems to be the likeliest bet.
The film itself has been well reviewed, if not quite as loved as Woody's previous Best Picture contender "Midnight in Paris," though its resemblance to a past Best Picture nominee certainly won't hurt its chances. Still, I'm not sold on its Best Picture odds yet until we see how the year's later releases pan out.
Odds: 15:1
‘Blue Is the Warmest Color’
Additionally, they came from respected directors Michael Haneke and Terence Malick, while "Blue" is by the relatively unknown (to American audiences) Abdellatif Kechiche (try saying that three times fast). Two of his films have won him the César award (the French Oscar) for Best Director, so conceivably he'd be on the radar for a foreign language film nomination, but the film's release date in France is too late for consideration for that category. Given the controversial content however, it's unlikely the more conservative members of the Academy will consider "Blue" at all.
Odds: 20:1
Check back here in another 50 days when after the Toronto International Film Festival the frontrunners start to assert themselves from the rest of the pack!
* “Spring Breakers,” you will always be Best Picture in my heart.
Talk Oscar Odds with Devin on Twitter and Facebook. What movies do you think have the best odds at next year's Oscars? Let us know by commenting here, on Twitter or Facebook. We'll recap more odds with 150 days to go.
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